For decades, the liberals have been very successful in moving the world towards greater liberty, pluralism, and justice. Before the current conservative backlash we saw unprecedented gains for women, ethnic minorities, and LGBT+ people, enacting decolonial and environmental policies, demilitarisation, free trade, etc.
But the tides are shifting and it looks like the conservatives around the world are ready to make a comeback. Agenda Europe and Project 2025 outline clearly what they’re after: rolling back hard-won rights and returning to more traditional values of authority, safety and community.
The pendulum is swinging back and I think it’s time for the liberals to take stock and think hard about two things:
- Why are people turning away from us?
- How can we make this backward swing as short and gentle as possible?
Naturally, both questions are incredibly complex. I’ll only focus on some aspects of it. At the end, I’ll offer some suggestions for what you can personally do next.
Why is Liberalism losing people?
My grandparents recall the Soviet times in Poland very fondly because they had safe jobs and nobody was homeless. They worked diligently and earned a good pension despite having only a basic education. The fact that they never had a passport or could be persecuted for having divergent thoughts didn’t bother them at all. They never had a need for either.
They are a good example of some well-studied psychological differences between those who tend to vote liberal or conservative. On average, conservatives tend to be:
- more conscientious
- less open to new experiences
- less educated
The first two are Big 5 Personality Traits, the last is an indication of intelligence. They all tend to be rather fixed — mostly innate or acquired in early childhood and very hard to change.
Some of us are more open to and interested in meeting new people and exploring new ideas. They’re flexible and comfortable with a dose of chaos and uncertainty in their lives and thus happy to take risks — especially as they’re generally smart enough to find their way out of hairy situations anyway. They tend to have an ‘I’ll be fine’ attitude and thus a lower need for conceptual and institutional structures which help them feel safe. You can see how this fits with the liberal values of liberty, pluralism, or equal rights for those who are different from us.
Others, like my grandparents, don’t have a strong need for novelty but value solid structure and organisation to help them deal with the chaos of life — especially since they might not have the education to work out solutions on the fly. They do need more conceptual and institutional safety. No wonder they value tradition, community, and hierarchies which ensure it.
Obviously, these are broad strokes. There are many people in between, you can have different combinations of these traits, and life events change your political views. But we’re talking society-level statistics. See here or here for the science.
I think that the liberals have forgotten that this difference exists and assume everyone thinks or should think like them. We have been optimising our world for maximum liberty, pluralism and equality, forgetting that not everyone is as comfortable with them as we are.
The unwanted gifts of liberalism
There’s a reason why my grandparents didn’t mind the Soviet regime. They fit in perfectly and had no need to step out. They are exactly the sort of down-to-earth, play-by-the-rules, working-class people it was designed for. They never felt oppressed. Sure, they’ve been denied opportunities — but so what if they were safe and comfortable? It’s not like they took any of those new opportunities that opened in the 90s anyway. I convinced them to take an international holiday once. They were unimpressed. ‘Sure, it’s different there, but so what? Have they got as good a pierogi as we do?’
I am very much not a down-to-earth play-by-the-rules kind of person. I don’t like to do what I’m told or follow the herd. I consider ‘normal’ to be an insult. I was extremely lucky to have been given an opportunity to break out of the mainstream and design my life as I please. I want my freedom, I want an open world, I want opportunities. I want to, as Karl Marx has famously said:
hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner, just as I have a mind, without ever becoming a hunter, fisherman, herdsman or critic. (German Ideology)
But my grandparents think I must be really unhappy — they regularly and sincerely wish me to finally get my life in order and settle down to be a hunter, a critic, or just something. You know, do things properly, the way they’re done. Funny how little the Soviet mindset has to do with its Father.
There’s a generational difference here, sure, but it’s also personalities. Some people, irrespective of age, don’t want to be different, try new things, redefine their lives, question cultural norms, or whatnot. They’re just fine with how things are.
That’s why every tourist destination has a Starbucks, a Holiday Inn and pizza on the menu.
Liberalism aims to increase your life opportunities and give you more options — especially if those were denied to you due to your gender, race, ability, etc. Most liberals know what it’s like to want to pursue our dreams but not be able to because of some daft rules, norms, or discrimination. To us, a liberal world order is a real gift:
Look! In our fantastic new world, you can be anything!
Isn’t that amazing?
But… what if you were happy with what you had? What if traditional society worked for, or even privileged you? What if you never wanted to pursue any of the things it denied to you anyway? Why should you care about the ‘gift’ of pluralism if the default option worked just fine for you? (Yes yes, I know, you should care for altruistic reasons — have some patience and read on!)
Except it’s not a gift, is it. There is a price.
When a wall is not an obstacle
It’s not just the Berlin Wall that fell with the Soviet regime. State borders opened. They dissolved further as eastern nations were included in the EU. Soon, liberal reforms removed barriers to education and jobs, tackled the glass ceiling, opened countries to immigration, blurred the boundaries between genders…
Liberal reforms, wherever in the world they happened, empowered those who could not fit, succeed or thrive within the old system. For them, these walls were barriers to opportunities. The world might seem a bit more chaotic without them, but most liberals are fine coping with uncertainty and besides, better an uncertain world where you can succeed than one where you will certainly fail.
But for all those who did fit in, who already could succeed or didn’t have much of a need to, those walls were never barriers at all. Instead, they formed a safety structure: a shared meaning and community, religion and culture, stable jobs, authorities you can trust. The safety of knowing what’s what, of waking up in the same world you fell asleep in.
Except, a single culture is the antithesis of diversity. Patriarchal religion enforces conformity and ossifies power. Authorities had colonial, sexist or exclusionary views. Tear down all those walls!
The liberals did not cause present-day job precarity but their education and openness to novelty make them better disposed to cope with it. And if the world of tomorrow will not be like today, that’s just a new adventure!
Most liberals don’t feel particularly unsafe without the walls they tear down. But the conservatives tend to be more conscientious and thus value a good structure and security net, and they might not have the openness or education to easily find new solutions. To them, those walls were kinda important. To them, this ‘gift’ they never wanted is pretty expensive.
My grandparents were just confused by it all — they get why you’d want more economic opportunity, but why can’t men just be men, women be women, and everyone be Christian? In 2005, the Polish people voted in a government more socially conservative than the Soviets. Talking of conservative backlash.
The Liberals are idealistic about human nature
Of course, if you don’t need the gifts of liberalism, if you don’t see the problem with the walls, it’s probably because you’re privileged. The system was designed for, or at least not against people like you.
Not everyone was lucky enough to be born privileged. We shouldn’t be opening doors and tearing down walls only for ourselves — we should be doing it for others, out of empathy, moral duty, and commitment to justice!
Whenever I hear someone express this sentiment, I think back to good old Marx and his oh-so-naïve theory of human nature (or species-being, as he called it). Once we free people from capitalist oppression, he thought, humans will follow their communal and productive nature and build an altruistic society where everyone will genuinely want to
hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner.
Except, it turns out that there are way too many humans who would much rather watch Netflix all day and force others to do the work. Communism truly is a great political system, except humans are not good enough for it. Human nature is just as lazy and selfish as it is communal and productive.
And this, I think, is what liberals often forget. We all should fight for justice on moral principles, but in reality, we rarely do. The urgency we feel to break down walls is directly proportional to how much of an obstacle those walls are to us.
Who fights for racial equality? Primarily racial minorities. Gender equality? Women. Rights of LGBT+, disabled, religious minorities… Sure, not enough men fight for women’s rights — but is it less than the white women who fight for racial equality?
And the men who do? Let’s be honest. 90% never fit in the system anyway. They’re not the sporty football kids, confident leaders, big muscle dudes, successful protectors and providers, or sex magnets. Coincidence? Or do they actually question the patriarchy mainly because it doesn’t work for them, too?
Obviously, there is a big difference between:
‘Why aren’t you helping us fight for racial equality?’
‘Sorry, I’m too busy fighting for women’s rights!’
and:
‘Why aren’t you helping us fight for women’s rights’
‘Sorry, I’m too busy watching Netflix!’
But the point stands: most humans feel much more invested in addressing their own problems first. Or only. Because that’s just how humans are: a bit good and altruistic, but also a bit lazy and selfish.
We might wish that we’d been given stones and mortar to build our future world out of, but the truth is, we’ve mostly got mud and clay. We can stand here complaining and shouting at the mud to become stone, but it just won’t. All we’ll build is a sore throat.
Instead, I think what we need is a plan for how to build our world out of mud and clay.
Which brings me to the second question:
How can we counteract the conservative backlash?
My grandparents might be old but people like them are born every day. People who don’t need pluralism or novelty, who value stability, and who have less interest in education. And that’s OK. Those people are just people, worthy of exactly as much kindness and respect as anyone else.
They don’t need a diverse world of opportunity but they do need safety and stability offered by a shared understanding, by community, by trustworthy authorities. And their needs are valid.
Sure, the conservative backlash has people who are more or less overtly racist, sexist, and so on. But for many, the questions of race or gender just aren’t a priority. They might have nothing against the gifts of liberalism and might be happy for others to enjoy them — they just don’t want to pay for them themselves.
Like all humans, they don’t operate purely on moral principles but care for their own interests first. They’re mud and clay. They’d be less inclined to resist liberal reforms if they’d benefit them or at least didn’t cost them.
And sure, some will stay racist and misogynist no matter what. For some, the very existence of queer people or immigrants is too much. Whatever. They’re a lost game. But fortunately, we don’t need to win everyone. We just need 51%.
Political strategy against conservative backlash
Big politics might be way above most of us, but we can all vote and use our platforms to call for action. Here’s what I think we should be calling for:
- Prioritise economic equality and safety. If there is one structural wall of society which should not be taken down, it’s the one supporting the kitchen. People who can’t afford food and basic necessities will always prioritise them over anything else. Ask them: ‘Why aren’t you helping us fight for trans rights’ and you’ll hear: ‘WTF man, the very fact you have the time to care about this proves you have no clue what problems we’re struggling with!’ If the economy wall were strong and stable, they’d be less worried about the other walls being taken down. They wouldn’t see woke people as detached from reality. They’d be less inclined to listen to politicians who blame the immigrants for their troubles. Naturally, it’s not the Liberals who have been shaking this wall — but it is shaky. Rebuilding it should be our top priority, simply so people have the headspace to think about anything else.
- Slow on identity politics. Nobody wants to hear this, but social change takes time. You can tear down walls but you need to allow time for people to build some new supports in their place. If you tear down all walls at the same time, people panic. You need to do it slowly, giving them time to process and, frankly, wait until the generations who really cared about them just die out. I know we don’t want equality later. We want equality yesterday. It sucks to be told that you won’t get your rights for another decade because that’s the strategic way to go about it. But that’s just how it works. We need to know when to push hard, but we also need to know when to take a pause, hold our position strong and give people time to get used to the new reality. Once they do, we push on.
- Reconsider immigration policies. Right now, immigration inspires a great deal of fear and uncertainty. No wonder those who value safety double down on rebuilding the walls that made them feel secure. No immigrant will want to hear this, but limiting immigration might be what’s needed to ensure that Western countries continue being worth immigrating to. And from the native liberals’ perspective, here’s a touchy subject. Immigrants typically come from countries which score much lower on gender and racial equality than most Western nations. Given how we’re struggling to keep our own citizens committed to equality, maybe it’s a bad time to invite people who, statistically speaking, are even less committed.
- Create new pillars of safety. Honestly, I don’t get the need for safety provided by a common culture or religion, by fitting in and being told what to do — but it’s there. Many people don’t want to hear: you’re now free to figure it all out for yourself. They want someone to guide them, be it God, a guru, or a political leader. They want a brotherhood. They want clear rules. If we take these things away without offering alternatives, somebody else will. Their alternatives are nationalism, Trumpism, anti-wokism. Let’s give them better alternatives, a role to play, a clear path, a recipe for life. Sure, the whole point of liberalism is that there is no single way, but this gap will get filled, so perhaps we should fill it with something that’s not perfect but is at least aligned with our values.
Personal strategy against conservative backlash
Every one of us can do something to promote liberal values. The main task is to understand that the people we need to convince are unlikely to care about the things we care about, and instead appeal to what they care about: safety, community, and good old self-interest.
- Build inviting communities. Any of us can create small communities guided by liberal values. It can be a sports club, a cooking circle, a self-improvement blog, a group of party friends, or whatever. Don’t make them about liberal values. Make them about something else but just assume liberal values as a given. And then invite people, but not just other liberals — invite anyone who seeks community. Don’t preach to them, don’t judge them. Watch them find that all of us liberals are actually pretty nice people they can feel safe with, and slowly adopt our values (except when they’re actual incorrigible extremists — kick those out).
- Show them you care. The overwhelming message liberals have to those who were OK with the old system is: you’re privileged and we’ll do nothing for you. I understand why, we should certainly prioritise those who have been marginalised and discriminated against. But we should also recognise that most people who enjoy some privilege, aren’t actually doing that well. They’re not all CEOs making big deals from their luxury yachts. They’re parking attendants working extra night shifts to make ends meet. They’re disillusioned college dropouts. They’re lonely jaded game addicts. They might be white or male, but they sure aren’t rich and powerful. They genuinely struggle and they don’t feel secure in life at all. They will obviously gravitate towards and adopt the values of those who make them feel like they matter, who care about them, and with whom they’re safe. That could be us.
- Have understanding for those different than you. We’re living through a conservative backlash, not an axis-of-evil-Nazi-demon backlash. The conservatives are people, too. Far too many liberals are very tolerant of all shades — except the conservative one. They love to demonise them, rub moral and intellectual superiority in their faces, and call them racist, sexist, and all sorts of things. All that ever leads to is more fighting and more defensive entrenchment. Those who already felt unsafe, now feel even more attacked, and thus even more inclined to seek safety and stability. And they find it in traditional values promoted by conservative populists who capitalise on their fears. Stop making them feel judged, disvalued and attacked, and you’ll reduce their need to find safety.
- Appeal to self-interest. Yes, we’d like to build a better world with stone and mortar, but all we’ve got is mud and clay. People do act on moral principles but they’re much more likely to act on personal interest. Getting them on board will be much easier if we find ways to highlight how liberal policies will benefit them, personally. You might cringe at the idea of selling feminism to men or racial equality to white people by making it about them, but what do you want more — to not cringe or to get the effect? We can keep our hands clean and get equality in a couple of centuries, or get our hands dirty and get there in a generation. I know what I’d choose.
Less division, more unity
My grandparents and I are very different with respect to our needs for safety, freedom, community, diversity, our tolerance to change and uncertainty, our education and willingness to conform.
This is just how humans are. Some are thrilled about change and the opportunity to redefine their lives. Others prefer stability and something to define them. Over the last decades, most such things have been taken away: they don’t have a stable career, their culture’s bloody history means they can’t be proud of it and their church is a patriarchal source of repression. Now we have a conservative backlash.
The Right gave them something new: anti-woke populism. They find community in being militantly against diversity and liberal values. They find safety in returning to traditional frameworks which, by the way, are sexist and racist.
Those needs stem from fundamental and likely innate character traits, and it is extremely unlikely that they will change or that fewer people like this will be born. There is nothing wrong with those people. They are not demons, Nazis or villains. They just have different needs and are pissed that the liberals don’t care about them. And they vote for those who promise to.
Those aren’t the needs to dominate women and exclude minorities. It’s the need for financial safety, an accepting community, and something to define you. They can be satisfied by anti-woke populism, or we could try to offer something better.
If we do that, the ‘cost’ of liberal reforms diminishes massively. Sure, it will still be too high for many, but some will find it acceptable. They’ll still find woke stuff mildly annoying but so what? They’re not paying the price. Or maybe they’ll even see a personal benefit.
How many is ‘some’? Well, we don’t actually need many. So probably enough to start winning elections and stop the pendulum of history from swinging us too far back.
I think it’s worth a try.
If you read this thinking: but the Democrats already did all of this, it’s all about misinformation and America’s racism and sexism, etc., let me gently remind you of two things:
- America is a continent and there are two of them. Once you deal with your imperialist tendency to assume your country is the only one worth mentioning on both, consider that there are other places on Earth which also experience a conservative backlash. This text is not just about the US.
- The US fares worse than nearly every single European country and many Asian ones on gender equality, is worse than most of the world on racism, and ranks 185 out of 196 on income equality. You guys should maybe stop telling everyone what to do, and start listening.
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